Pollster says Raila faces competition at run-off

Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Maggie Ireri, presents the opinion poll results, Nairobi, on Tuesday.

By Peter Opiyo
Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the most preferred man in the race to State House should Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto be blocked from running for presidency.
According to the latest opinion poll released by Ipsos Synovate, Raila’s popularity would not be affected should the two not make it to the ballot. In the findings, with or without the two, Raila’s rating stands at 34 per cent.
The two are facing trials at the International Criminal Court over the 2008 post-election violence and there have been calls from some quarters that they be blocked from running until they are cleared.
The biggest beneficiaries in the absence of the two would be Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who will garner 19 per cent of the votes, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, 10 per cent and Gichugu MP Martha Karua, nine per cent
But Raila would not have it easy in a run-off as the findings indicate it would be a neck and neck race between him and Uhuru with both posting 44 per cent popularity rating.
It could go either way in the run-off given that the margin of error in the survey is +/-2.2 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence level.

Tilt the win

There were 12 per cent undecided voters and Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Maggie Ireri said this could also tilt the results in either way.

And if the run-off would be between Raila and Mudavadi, the PM would score 43 per cent against Mudavadi’s 41 per cent, in what the pollster says would be ‘a razor thin lead’.
"Findings of this study indicate that a run-off between Raila and Uhuru would be hotly contested with each of the two receiving 44 per cent of the vote though the 12 per cent are undecided and this proportion of undecided voters would be enough to tilt the win either way," said Ms Ireri.
Nevertheless the PM has narrowed the gap in a run-off compared to October last year when Uhuru posted a 44 per cent approval in a run-off compared to Raila’s 41 per cent. There were 15 per cent undecided voters at the time.
In the run-off with Ruto, the PM would post 48 per cent against Ruto’s 33 per cent and score 46 per cent against Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka’s 41 per cent should he go into a run-off with the VP. A Raila-Karua run-off would record 46 per cent for the PM and 39 per cent for Karua, in the survey carried out between April 6 and April 17, 2012.

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